As always, super-analyst come venture capitalist Mary Meeker just published her Internet Trends for 2015, and, as always, I wanted to summarize the trends most relevant for those in the game and gaming industries (and for those who prefer Meeker’s actual analysis, her presentation is embedded at the bottom of this post).
I always find her analysis very interesting but you need to take anyone’s predictions with a grain of salt. After all, they are predictions of the future and very few are good at predicting the future (hence why I don’t try). Most analysts who try show why they are analysts and not trillionaires. Next week, I will look at Meeker’s 2014 predictions and see how they performed. Regardless, it is interesting to see what a leading thinker in the space sees as the major trends we are experiencing.
Below are the elements of Meeker’s analysis I consider critical for success:
- Slide 6: Of the top 15 Internet companies in 1995, only Apple is still on the list. Thus, the companies we consider critical partners today may not be relevant in the future while new companies are likely to dominate.
- Slide 14: Internet is becoming an increasingly large elements of peoples’ lives, with people now spending 5.6 hours/day on it (and 51% of that time from mobile devices).
- Slide 16: Advertisers are still spending much more on print advertising versus mobile given the relative share of media consumption. Given that markets eventually find equilibrium, this figure suggests advertising revenue opportunities on mobile should grow sharply and there may be an opportunity for new mobile ad delivery mechanics.
- Slides 23 and 24 show the importance of vertical (portrait) viewing (mobile phone format versus traditional television),having grown to 29 percent from 5 percent. This figure shows the importance of optimizing for both formats.
- Slide 47: Six of the top-10 most used apps are messaging apps. Shows the importance of messaging to the gaming space.
- Slide 52: Many people use different messaging apps for different purposes, not a winner takes it all market.
- Slide 53: Mobile messaging apps may evolve into central communications hubs.
- Slide 54: Notifications are evolving and are now allowing for direct interaction and are more up close and personal. CRM strategies must evolve to leverage this increasingly important interaction channel.
- Slide 57-65 show the importance of user generated content, from Twitter to Twitch
- Slide 88: One of the less positive slides, points to the growth and severity of Cyber Attacks. This slides shows how security will be important to all firms.
- Slide 151: The size of the Chinese market is beyond what most people think. In one day, 1 billion “red envelopes” were sent on WeChat.
- Slide 158: By taking less of a share than their US competitors, Taobao (versus eBay) and Meituan (versus Groupon) grew to more than twice the size than their competitors. This suggests that lowering the take rate can increase growth and profits.
- Slide 165: India seems to be at an inflection point suggesting it may be the next China. It is already the third largest Internet market, with 232 million Internet users (and adding 63 million annually).
There are many other interesting areas of Meeker’s analysis, such as the growth in online platforms and marketplaces, but they are not as relevant (maybe) to my readers. I recommend, however, you take a look at the whole presentation:
The Business of Social Games and Casino 