Although this is by no means a prediction based on any scientific data, I am already seeing big trends this holiday gift season that will impact game companies significantly. By talking to my children and their friends, visiting major retailers and getting virtually every online retailers newsletter, it is becoming clear there will be some big winners and losers this holiday season that also show how the industry will continue to evolve.
Nintendo and Microsoft look like the losers
I expect two companies that I respect greatly, Microsoft and Nintendo, to have poor Q4 product introductions. Unlike the iPad and some of the Android tablets, nobody is advertising or discussing the Surface. Although Microsoft has set up stands at malls and is leveraging retailers that normally sell PCs, most consumers who are in the market for a tablet are deciding between the iPad or the Kindle Fire (at least the people I spoke with). Retailers are drawing traffic by selling cut-price Android tablets (normally under $100),showing that they believe consumers will go out of their way to buy such a tablet (say what you want about traditional retailers, but they still understand their customers very well). Worse for Microsoft, the Surface is not even on people’s radar; outside of Microsoft ads I have not heard it mentioned once. Continue reading “Two losers and one winner this holiday season”