It seems that every game industry trade show has a panel about the game industry in 2, 5, 10 years (e.g., “The Social Game Industry in 2020”). I find it interesting how many people actually focus on these sessions and make decisions based on the panelists’ prognostications.
More importantly, I think it is very dangerous to listen to these panels for anything more than the entertainment value. One of the basic laws of nature is that nobody can predict the future. From Bill Gates to Warren Buffett to Stephen Hawking, even the best minds are no better at consistently predicting the future than a group of apes. Some people will get lucky but that does not make them brilliant nor more likely to be right in the future. You can see this trend in almost any industry, from the financial (where the “top” analysts and fund managers are no more likely to beat the market than a random sampling of stocks) to retail (where top retailers repeatedly miss new trends) to gaming (What panelist five years ago predicted the rise of social gaming? I know I did not). Continue reading “Don’t Believe Predictions”