11 thoughts on “Lifetime Value Part 9: Uncertainty and LTV”

  1. Hi Lloyd, good post to introduce the uncertainty concepts behind LTV. Using confidence intervals around predictions is a good way to ensure better understanding by the end users.

    What are your thoughts on whether confidence intervals can be generated for user level LTV? The reason I ask is that in Sonamine analysis of many games, LTV tends to follow a power law distribution, instead of the “normal” bell shaped distribution.


    1. I agree completely. I did not mean to imply it would be a normal distribution, which might allow you to narrow the range but also shows the impact a little chaos can cause.


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