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How to succeed in the mobile game space by Lloyd Melnick

Tag: Game development

Lessons from Overwatch to help you create a hit

One of the biggest hits in the gaming space this year has been Overwatch from Blizzard and there are several lessons game companies can learn from it. An article in Rolling Stone, Blizzard Reveals How to Make a Hit Game in 9 Easy Steps, highlights these lessons, though grossly underestimating the difficult in making a hit. I have been in the game industry since 1993 and have seen many companies do everything right but still fail. Actually, that is still the likely outcome with more than 80 percent of games failing but the expected value of a hit still makes it a (sometimes) profitable business.

By looking into the success of Overwatch, you can improve the odds of creating a successful game. Some of the keys that Blizzard’s team pointed to and that I agree with, with my prioritization:

  1. Ditch everything that gets in the way of players. According to Blizzard VP Jeffrey Kaplan, “Blizzard doesn’t focus on reducing game difficulty across the board. Instead, it preserves a game’s ‘core fantasy’ and gets rid of friction points: needlessly complex aspects where ‘normal’ human beings will step away from the computer in a moment of frustration, but the more-hardcore will stick around.”

    Blizzard looked at all the conventional norms of the industry and then asked the question of each, can they be reduced to make a simpler but still great experience. The key here, and one of the keys to great game (and product) design, is the more you eliminate, the better the product. This runs counter to conventional wisdom about always adding features.

  2. Appeal to new players with a subtle learning curve. Blizzard’s games take a long time to master, and any product that appeals to core players will need to so they can satisfy those hardcore players. These days, however, even the most hardcore gamers will not put up with a tutorial that lasts in the days or hours (and probably even minutes). The game industry has to face the same reality as electronics or car makers, the manual (or in this case tutorial) will not be opened or at most not read carefully.

    Rather than a long boring tutorial, Blizzard on boards players by controlling the early experience. “In most of its games, players start with a [short] tutorial, then play against the A.I. Finally, they start to battle other players, but in a very shallow pool amongst other beginners. They join the main group only after they figure out what’s going on. Even then, the learning process continues. In Overwatch, the “Kill Cam” and “Play of the Game” features showcase short videos that might prove instructive to beginners.”

    The key is for players to get immersed in the game quickly by controlling the competition, not by teaching. Thus they are already enjoying the game when they decide whether to come back (or monetize).

  3. Blow up your games and start over. A lot of your development efforts will fail, even if you are Blizzard or Supercell. Supercell “pops champagne” when a game fails. Blizzard has cancelled as many games as it has shipped. By canceling the games that were once promising but no longer have the magic they need to succeed, it allows your company to focus on the product most likely to succeed.

  4. Polish and prune as you go. One thing that I have not heard from other companies but makes ultimate sense is to polish and tweak your game throughout the development process, rather than at the end. I have seen many times how the last 20 percent is the difference between a hit and a failure. This reality is most obvious in the shooter space, where so many developers have great technology it is not a competitive advantage. It is the little features that generate hits, first shown by Duke Nukem’s unexpected rise in the market in 1996. At Blizzard, “instead of blocking out the larger elements and leaving the fine tweaks for the last stages, they pour effort into polishing each step as they go.” This is a great way to ensure you have a polished product that delights players even for your soft launch.

  5. Pick your genre. Blizzard has done a great job of focusing on a genre, allowing it to create product expertise, customer insight and brand equity. It’s titles, starting with World of Warcraft (or Diablo) and going to Overwatch, have all been markets targeting hardcore gamers. They know what these gamers want and have been able to create appealing products. This focus on a genre has allowed them to not only weather, but also thrive, during platform shifts (Hearthstone quickly established them as a leader on mobile).

    Conversely, Zynga shows what happens when you do not follow this strategy. After building a great business and deep customer knowledge of the casual female player with titles like Farmville and Fishville (and anything else ville they could think of), they tried to dominate the mid-core mobile space. Three CEOs later, they are still trying to gain a leadership position on mobile (where, not coincidentally, they are seeing their biggest success in social casino, which unsurprisingly targets an older female demographic).

Give yourself a fighting chance

I would summarize the key to great game development as eliminate, eliminate, eliminate and tweak, tweak, tweak. As I mentioned earlier, at least 80 percent of game launches fail (and I’m not talking Indie, look at King or Kabam or anyone not located in Finland). By creating a game that immerses players quickly and is not unduly complicated; and by focusing on a genre where you have expertise, you will have a chance to succeed where others fail. And, as Blizzard does, do not be afraid to kill projects and start tweaking from day one.

Key takeaways

  • The most important key to creating a successful game is eliminating elements and mechanics that are not really necessary. Less is more and good design is not adding more features.
  • You need to plan the early user journey so the player gets immersed and learns the game naturally, while having fun, rather than using a long tutorial as a crutch.
  • Be willing to kill projects quickly so you can focus on the games with the best chance of success.

overwatch

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on September 21, 2016September 10, 2016Categories General Social Games Business, General Tech BusinessTags Blizzard, game design, Game development, Overwatch, social game designLeave a comment on Lessons from Overwatch to help you create a hit

Reducing surprises with your project and game development

Last week I wrote about improving your project management, today I want to address a related issue, how to minimize surprises during product development. Most experienced leaders in the tech and game space (and probably any product development) have experienced many projects that fail to meet their goals for time, cost or performance. Rather than accepting these failures as part of the development process, an article in the MIT Sloan Management Review, Reducing Unwelcome Surprises in Project Management by Tyson Browning and Ranga Ramasesh, shows how to reduce these undesirable blows.

Browning and Ramasesh discuss projects often miss schedule and projections because of unknown unknowns, problems people do not even know they do not know (rather than issues you are concerned about from the beginning). What the authors point out is that they are not really unknown unknowns but issues that nobody has bothered to find out. Many of these unknown unknowns can be converted to known unkowns (and thus planned around) through a process of “direct recognition.”

Six project domains

There are six project domains where a project uncertainty resides and where recognition of the uncertainty should occur. “Projects operate as systems. Project and performance result not only from individual project elements but also from how the elements work together.” All projects have five key subsystems that when coupled with the project’s context contain both known and unknown unknowns.

  1. Result subsystem. The desired result of most projects is a product, service, feature or other deliverable. Results have multiple components, all of which must work together to deliver success. Problems in one area can bleed into other areas.
  2. Process subsystem. The labor required to execute and manage a project is another system, made up of activities, tasks and decisions tied to the flow of information, work product and deliverables. Efficient and effective processes depend not only on the specific activity but also on the relationships among the activities. Bad inputs can undermine an otherwise value-adding activity.
  3. Organization subsystem. A third type of system incorporates the people, teams, departments and functions working on a project. This is the system that often breaks down due to poor communication.
  4. Tools subsystem. Team members need tools, facilities and equipment to manage activities and exchange information. Many tools, however, are unable to transfer information due to various incompatibilities and organizational decisions.
  5. Goals subsystem. Almost every project has goals for time, cost and performance/quality. These three areas, however, compete with each other. For example, improving performance by adding features often adds costs.
  6. Context. Every project (hopefully) exists within a larger context. A project may be part of a larger portfolio or a feature for a game. It may also have multiple stakeholders with competing visions and metrics for success.

The first step in reducing unknown unknowns is to consider these six subsystems and their relationships.

The factors driving uncertainty

There are multiple elements of a project’s subsystems and context that make impact the likelihood of surprises. If you review your project looking for unknown unknowns you are more likely to convert them to known unknowns (and thus account for them in your schedule/budget). There are six factors that drive uncertainty and help you identify unknown unknowns.

The first of is complexity. A complex system contains many interacting elements that increase the variety of its possible behaviors and results. A project with more tasks, people or requirements is going to be more complex than a project with fewer. When a project’s elements have a greater variety of tasks, complexity also increases. The higher complexity, the greater the chance of experiencing unknown unknowns.

The second element driving uncertainty is complicatedness. Complicatedness is more subjective than complexity. It is often increased if the product is unprecedented or its structure is unintuitive. The more complicated the project, the more difficult it is for the participants to understand and anticipate.

The third factor impacting uncertainty is dynamism. A project’s volatility adds to its complexity. A project’s external dynamics are particularly likely to affect its goals, for example if regulation changes. Changes in goals then add to the complexity and complicatedness and increase the chances of unknown unknowns.

The fourth factor impacting uncertainty is equivocality. Project work requires sharing a great deal of information. If the information is not crisp and specific, then the people who receive it will be equivocal and will not be empowered to make firm decisions.

Mindlessness is the fifth factor driving uncertainty. These are the perceptive barriers that interfere with the recognition of unknown unknowns. They good be too much reliance on intuition or anchoring on past experience and traditions rather than looking objectively at the situation.

The final factor impacting uncertainty is project pathologies. Project pathologies are structural or behavioral conditions in and around project in their entirety (rather than individuals who exhibit mindlessness) that allow unknown unknowns to remain hidden. Project pathologies include mismatches among the project subsystems and context, unclear expectations among stakeholders and dysfunctional cultures.

Reducing unknown unknowns

Slide1

By addressing the factors that drive uncertainty and understanding projects’ subsystems, Browning and Ramasesh suggest several ways to reduce the chance of unpleasant surprises

  • Decompose the project. Modeling a project’s subsystems builds understanding that exposes unknown unknowns. Decomposition should begin with the natural structure of the overall purpose of the project, identifying the sub-problems relating to key areas and complimenting it with experience and experimentation.
  • Analyze scenarios. Scenario planning includes building several different future outlooks. It tries to understand and build uncertainty into the reasoning. Rather than being predictions, scenarios are coherent and credible futures built on dynamic events and conditions.
  • Use checklists. Organized learning from past projects can inform planning. They can take the form of checklists or prompt lists, though should not be used as a substitute for thinking.
  • Scrutinize plans. Project plans are an estimate for how success will occur, including resources needed and results. All participants and stakeholders should scrutinize closely these estimates. This scrutiny can be as project reviews, audits or even external evaluations.
  • Use long interviews. Thorough interviews with project stakeholders, subject matter experts and other project participants are effective at uncovering waiting problems and issues.
  • Pick up weak signals. Weak signals often come in subtle forms, such as unexplained behaviors, confusing outcomes or a realization that no one in the organization has a complete understanding of the project.
  • Mine data. When vast amounts of data, analyzing this data can pull out implicit, previously unknown information. By reviewing data from multiple projects, data mining could help you identify precursors of potential problems.
  • Communicate frequently and effectively. Regularly and systematically reviewing decision-making and communication processes, including the assumptions that are factored into the processes, and seeking to reduce information disparities, can help to anticipate and uncover unknown unknowns.
  • Balance local autonomy and central control. Using decentralization of control to grant autonomy to the local nodes of a multi-nodal project aids recognition of unknown unknowns. Although decentralization helps project managers compensate for their knowledge gaps, it creates challenges for governance. Local nodes are less willing to report problems. You must balance central authority with local control to ensure unknown unknowns are both discovered and reported.
  • Incentivize discovery. One of the best ways to identify unknown unknowns is timely and honest communication of missteps, anomalies and missing competencies. Offering incentives for candor can show people there are advantages to owning up to errors or mistakes in time for management to take action.
  • Cultivate an alert culture. If project participants and stakeholders understand how unknown unknowns can derail projects, they will strive to illuminate rather than hide potential problems. You can make the culture more alert by emphasizing systems thinking, stress the limits of what can be known about a project a priori, seek to build a wide range of experiential expertise, develop the characteristics of a high-reliability organization and learn from surprising outcomes.

Avoid the unpleasant surprises

With the techniques above, you and your project managers can uncover and recognize knowable unknown unknowns. By providing guidance on where and why these unknown unknowns exist in projects and how to recognize their clues, you can reduce the number and magnitude of unwelcome surprises.

Key takeaways

  1. Unpleasant surprises in product management – particularly software development – occur when issues arise that nobody thought of, referred to as unknown unknowns.
  2. To anticipate unknown unknowns, you need to understand the underlying system for the projects and the key factors (complexity, complicatedness, dynamism, equivocality, mindlessness and project pathologies) that drive the uncertainty.
  3. You can then reduce the number and magnitude of unpleasant surprises by moving many to known unknowns by decomposing the project, analyzing scenarios, using checklists, scrutinized planning and strong communication (among other techniques).
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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on May 5, 2015May 3, 2015Categories General Social Games Business, General Tech BusinessTags collaboration, communication, Game development, project management, software development, surprises, uncertainty, unknown unknowns3 Comments on Reducing surprises with your project and game development

Know your competitors

I’ve been talking a lot lately about mistakes made in the game industry, but one that constantly amazes me is the failure to understand the competitive landscape. This issue is not new to the social gaming space; I have lamented this problem for nearly 20 years. I am always amazed at how many products come to market with no awareness of the competition. Developers and publishers end up losing millions of dollars that could have been mitigated—or even avoided—by basic competitive intelligence.

Your game should not be worse than your competitors

The most egregious example is when a developer/publisher releases a game that is clearly worse than the market leaders. This could be putting out a shooter that has a much lower frame rate than Halo or a hidden object game that does not look as good as the other titles on the market. Continue reading “Know your competitors”

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on September 4, 2013October 8, 2013Categories General Social Games BusinessTags candy crush, competition, Game development, microsoft1 Comment on Know your competitors

Avoid the false negative

thumbs downOne of the most frequent mistakes in the game industry is making decisions based on a false negative. A false negative is a result of a test that shows as absent something that is actually present. One example of this is drug test that comes back negative but the person being tested is actually taking drugs and has taken masking agent to mislead the test. I have seen false negatives applied to virtually every element of the game industry, from green light to development to international markets.

False negatives in green light

Many games have not even been started because of false negatives. When determining the market potential for a game, one of the key criteria is the performance of similar titles. Frequently, though, people stretch to define “similar titles,” and this leads to projects being rejected. Continue reading “Avoid the false negative”

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on August 29, 2013September 4, 2013Categories Analytics, General Social Games Business, International Issues with Social GamesTags bejeweled, candy crush, False negative, Game development, green light process, international, king.com2 Comments on Avoid the false negative

The secret of creating a hit game

It all comes down to one word: simplicity. This sounds very easy but creating a simple game experience is one of the most difficult elements of game design. In the social and mobile space, the games that are most appealing to the mass market are those that are very straightforward, simple experience. You can understand the game and start playing in the time it takes to get a latte at Starbucks (and often for less money). If you think of the games that have defined casual and social gaming, including Bejeweled, Farmville, Angry Birds and Candy Crush Saga, they are all easy to begin playing and simple to understand. Yet how many thousands of companies have unsuccessfully tried to quickly follow these successes with disappointing results?

Candy Crush iconHave fun fast

The key factor is that the player should be able to start playing and having fun immediately. They should not have to memorize an intricate system or go through a long tutorial. No long manuals, no Google searches, no emailing friends for instructions should be needed, or even considered, by the player. First, the player needs to be exposed immediately to the core game loop, that is the underlying mechanic the makes the game fun and keeps the player coming back. The quicker the player gets engaged with the core game loop, and not distracted by other features, the better. This engagement is seldom achieved through a tutorial, a convoluted story or mini-games. Design your game so the player can start playing quickly and understand what they are doing and their goals without it being explained to them. Continue reading “The secret of creating a hit game”

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on August 13, 2013August 19, 2013Categories General Social Games Business, GrowthTags Candy Crush Saga, Game development, simplicity6 Comments on The secret of creating a hit game

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This is Lloyd Melnick’s personal blog.  All views and opinions expressed on this website are mine alone and do not represent those of people, institutions or organizations that I may or may not be associated with in professional or personal capacity.

I am a serial builder of businesses (senior leadership on three exits worth over $700 million), successful in big (Disney, Stars Group/PokerStars, Zynga) and small companies (Merscom, Spooky Cool Labs) with over 20 years experience in the gaming and casino space.  Currently, I am the GM of VGW’s Chumba Casino and on the Board of Directors of Murka Games and Luckbox.

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