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The Business of Social Games and Casino

How to succeed in the mobile game space by Lloyd Melnick

Category: General Social Games Business

The Emergence of the Publishing Model in the Social Game Space

There has been a development recently in the social gaming ecosystem that has generated very little buzz but probably will have a major impact moving forward, the fact that two of the top social gaming companies are now publishing third party titles. In the last few weeks, Playdom licensed Triple Town from SpryFox to publish in English on Facebook (Playdom announcement). Even more significantly, last week Zynga announced it was publishing Slingo (Washington Post article on Zynga’s move).
Image from Zynga's blog

These moves are significant because for the first three years of the Facebook game business, the only publishing option for developers who could not or did not want to self-publish on Facebook was 6 Waves (now 6 Waves/LOLApps). With Zynga and Playdom both moving into third party publishing (though for Playdom, it did try some publishing in 2010), and the way the social game business is almost defined by fast following, it is likely smaller developers will have multiple publishing options on Facebook.

The Risks and Downside of Soliciting a Publisher

Before you rush out the door and try to find a publisher, I wanted to highlight a few of the risks. First, there have been a few big stories lately about companies allegedly “borrowing” ideas from developers. A few weeks ago I blogged about 6 Waves/LOLApps allegedly copying Triple Town while in negotiations with Spry Fox (my blog post). Earlier this month, a federal district court refused to throw out the lawsuit from SocialApps against Zynga claiming Zynga used confidential information obtained while negotiating to license myFarm (Zynga/Social Apps article).

A second reason not to rush into a publishing relationship is the foregone revenue. In the social gaming space, I have seen many publishing deals pay the developer up to 50 percent of revenue, especially if no advance or guaranteed payment is involved. In the traditional core game space, the royalty back to the developer is usually in the 15% to 35% range (i.e, the developer gets paid 15 percent of the revenue its game generates). So you are looking at foregoing from half to more than three quarters of your revenue, which could be a huge cost if the game is a hit or even keep you from breaking even if the game is mediocre.

A third concern with using a publisher is how much mindshare and resources the publisher will devote to your game. When you are negotiating, they will tell you how much they love you and will treat it just like an internal title. That claim is worth about as much as a politician’s promise during an election campaign. Now the first few games a publisher licenses will probably get a lot of attention, as their publishing model matures you will be fighting for resources with all the third party titles (and not even be in the conversation compared to first party titles). If the game comes out of the gate strongly, they will probably continue to promote it. If the game, however, stumbles either in terms of monetization or overall adoption, you are likely dead. Once the publisher moves on to another game, they will not revisit yours regardless of the changes you make (despite what they say). In my experience, contractual marketing commitments have little value. Publishers will either ignore them or fudge the numbers. At the end of the day, if the game is not hot they do not worry about losing the rights.

Reasons to Consider Using a Publisher

Although there are some significant drawbacks to using a publisher, there are still several major reasons to consider this option. Most importantly, it costs a boatload of money to launch and market a social game. The major Facebook game publishers spend well over $3 million per month per top title just on Facebook ads (with some spending much more than that). Those companies that claim to generate most of their installs organically (cross promotion, virality and other free channels); well see my comment earlier about politicians during an election. You may be able to get traction and grow a game slowly and steadily without a huge marketing spend, but if you want to acquire users quickly (important if you are worried about being cloned), you need access to deep pockets. If you do not have the resources on hand, a publisher can be an appropriate choice.

A second reason is cross-promotion. The major social game companies have millions of monthly users that they can direct to a chosen title (in Zynga’s case, hundreds of millions). For a company launching its first title or one that does not have a large user base, the traffic a publisher can bring is a huge advantage.

A publisher can also give a developer expertise in does not have. Small developers, especially if they are on their first social title, may not have the understanding of monetization, analytics, game services (customer support) or marketing/user acquisition, which a proven publisher does. These competencies are often the difference between success and failure for a social game. Depending on the type of relationship you enter into, access to the publisher’s expertise could be more valuable than anything else they bring to the table (and may have a greater long-term benefit to your company, as you can then learn and leverage these skills on future titles).

When to Use a Publisher

Unfortunately, there is no clear cut rule as to when to use a publisher or when to self-publish. It is not just an issue of size, even some of the largest publishers license to other publishers outside their core markets. The thing you must do is look at the situation objectively and weight the benefits and costs.

You must also do your due diligence on the publisher so you can minimize those costs and risks. See how they have treated other developers. Understand how your product fits into their portfolio. Learn how they will market your game and what their key indicators are for continued support. Go past the first phone call and dig deep to understand exactly what they can and cannot do for you. Then, once you have made your decision, get behind it fully and do everything you can to succeed.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on February 20, 2012February 20, 2012Categories General Social Games Business, Social Games MarketingTags 6 Waves, myfarm, playdom, social game publishing, social games, Triple Town, zynga1 Comment on The Emergence of the Publishing Model in the Social Game Space

The Bot Controversy

It seems that the talk of the social gaming space is about Bots and using them to manipulate the iOS charts. It started with rumors that several companies were working with a “marketing” firm that actually just used bots to create fake downloads to move games up the free charts, to more rumors that this manipulation was being done by low-wage labor to even more rumors that it was Chinese slave labor. My guess is the truth is somewhere in between but what I find humorous is the high and mighty attitude some in the industry have taken. There may be some companies that knew what was going and decided not to partake, though why they did not report it to Apple or the press confounds me (and is bad business, as it put them at a competitive disadvantage). There are probably more companies that just did not know how to move up the charts in this manner. For the record, fiveonenine’s first iOS title will come out a few weeks so we do not have to make this “choice.”

What I actually find more interesting is that Apple did not stop this practice sooner. Given how widespread everyone in the industry knows it is and more importantly how even basic analysis of the traffic (i.e. tons of downloads with zero retention), Apple had to have known what was going on. Thus, they apparently decided not to stop it until the press made an issue of the manipulation. Furthermore, given how beautifully Amazon polices its customer ratings (they very diligent about eliminating fraudulent comments or those made by people even remotely tied to a product), Apple could stop the manipulation of its charts anytime it wants to.

All that said, what really matters to mobile social game companies is that this development reinforces the need to have a robust marketing strategy (and yes, insert here the trite comment that they just need to make good games that will naturally go high in the charts). Those companies (even if they are tiny) that relied on this “marketing tool” for their installs are now left dry, they need to find quickly a way to replace the installs generated by being artificially moved to the top of the charts. Companies, however, that have multiple marketing channels (performance marketing, web advertising, PR, social media marketing, etc.) can now just alter their marketing mix and maintain their business. This latest little controversy is just the most recent piece of evidence why it is necessary for social game companies to create full and robust marketing strategies for their games rather than rely on one tool.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on February 16, 2012Categories General Social Games Business, Mobile Platforms, Social Games MarketingTags Apple, Bot Farming, iOS, marketing, social game, social gamesLeave a comment on The Bot Controversy

Update on Sun-setting risk

Last week, I blogged about the downside of ending (sun-setting) a social game (The Risks of Sun-setting…). Today, I saw news that players have filed a class action suit against Google for their decision to kill SuperPoke (Social Game Players Sue Google). I am not a lawyer but my understanding is the lawsuit won’t go anywhere but it does show the increasing “annoyance” players have with sun-setting and the bad press it can generate.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on February 8, 2012Categories General Social Games Business, Social Games MarketingTags google, slide, social games, sun-settingLeave a comment on Update on Sun-setting risk

The Potential Effects of a Facebook IPO on the Social Gaming Space

A lot has been and will be written about Facebook’s IPO filing but I wanted to post some thoughts on how it could affect the social game industry. Overall, I think the IPO will in the medium term have many of the same consequences that I predicted the Zynga IPO would create (my most recent post on Zynga IPO).

Valuations Will Continue to Rationalize

Facebook valuation will continue the move to rational valuations in the social gaming space. Although Facebook is likely to go public at a very aggressive valuation, the multiples will likely serve as an upper boundary for social game companies. The P-E and P-R (price to earnings and price to revenue) ratios will be the most investors or acquirers are likely to pay for social game companies (and my guess is social game companies will get a significantly lower multiple). Many are going to think that if Facebook ends up with a $100 billion valuation, how could that hurt. Where it will hurt is the social game company that is seeking a $1 billion valuation. If its revenue is not 1/100 of Facebook (about $37 million), it will be impossible to justify a higher multiple than Zuck’s team (no matter how big your next game is going to be).

Facebook May Become a Competitor

Looking at the numbers and risk factors, I now think there is a strong chance that Facebook enters the game space as a first party publisher. In the past, I had pooh-poohed the chance of Facebook becoming a gaming company as I did not feel there was an economic reason for them to. Right now they bear no development risk, get 30 percent of in app transactions, generate a high percentage of their ad revenue from game companies and serve another high percentage of ads around games. Why get into the notoriously risky and costly game business (see THQ) when they can make so much with so little risk.

First, they have to spend the up to $10 billion they raise. With all the news about federal spending and deficits, it is easy to forget how much money $10 billion actually is (or even $5 billion). For those who do not have a doctorate in mathematics, $10 billion is $100 million one hundred times. To put that into perspective, there are probably only two or three non-Asian social game companies that have $100 million in revenue. Facebook is raising the cash for a reason. Much will go to the investors and founder but the company will still have a huge cash hoard. They have shown no interest in acquiring other social networks either domestically or internationally, as they have can compete effectively without an acquisition premium. Internal development would give Facebook a way to get the games their game team keeps saying they want, new genres and HTML5 games to support its mobile initiatives.

Second, Zynga has too much leverage. A $100 billion company cannot rely on one partner for 12 percent of its revenue; it is not a smart business decision. Analysts have frequently criticized Zynga for its reliance on Facebook but it is clearly a two way street and any degradation of its relationship with Zynga would significantly impact Facebook’s numbers. Just as the market has pushed Zynga to reduce its dependence on Facebook (through mobile acquisitions, building its own portal, etc.), analysts will also push Facebook to lessen its exposure to Zynga. With $10 billion in its pocket, it would make more sense for them to create games internally instead of trading one dependency for another.

Finally, Amazon is creating a precedent of moving from a sales platform to a publisher/content creator (and in the game space, Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft have done it since day one). Amazon is wooing top authors (NY Times article on Amazon’s publishing strategy) to go directly through a flagship publishing line. If Amazon feels they can move into content creation from a distribution strategy, the team in Palo Alto is likely to see that as a sign that it can make a comparable move without alienating its social game publishers (or alienate them but not enough to lose them). It may also help that Amazon is apparently moving into social gaming itself, creating even more incentive for Facebook to invest in game development.

What The IPO Means

As I mentioned in earlier posts, I think the rationalization regarding valuations will have a great long-term impact, forcing our industry to create stronger content more efficiently. Even if Facebook enters development space itself, there should still be room for competitors. Third party games generate so much money for Facebook they are not likely to cut off or even damage significantly that revenue stream. What it probably will do is make it even more competitive to acquire and retain users. If you are creating great social games, however, people will continue to play and monetize.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on February 2, 2012February 2, 2012Categories General Social Games BusinessTags Facebook, Facebook IPO, social games, social gaming, zynga2 Comments on The Potential Effects of a Facebook IPO on the Social Gaming Space

The Risks of Sun-setting Social Games

One issue that I see looming on the horizon but that has generated little conversation is the sun-setting of social games (pardon the pun). For those not familiar with the phrase, sun-setting is simply shutting down a social game (usually with advance notice).

From the publisher’s perspective, when to sunset is usually a pretty straightforward decision. When a game costs more to operate (hosting costs, support costs, etc.), many publishers will being sunsetting the game. I say begin because they usually give the community notice so players do not monetize one day to find the game dead the next. It also gives the publisher a chance to try to migrate players to other games.

Until recently, most of the large games were immune to sun-setting, they had a big enough community that even as they lost users, the losses were small enough that the games remained profitable. As these large games become increasingly old, and the lifecycle gets shorter for newer releases, more and more “classic” games face closure.

I see this imminent sun-setting becoming a major issue as it may change players’ perceptions of virtual goods. Although virtual goods are virtual, many people who monetize feel they are purchasing a durable good. Additionally, they really care about the city/farm/team that they built, they feel a sense of ownership. When the game is closed and they lose what they created, they suffer a sense of loss. This loss, which accentuates that they are purchasing VIRTUAL items, will make them less likely to monetize in other games (and maybe not even want to play other games).

While this effect can damage the industry, it is particularly risky for individual publishers. If a publisher gets a reputation of callously sun-setting games players will gravitate to games from publishers they know are committed to long-term success. Recently, the web was rife with rumors that Playdom planned to sunset City of Wonder because it was generating numbers similar to Social City before that game was closed. I have no idea of the veracity of these rumors but I am sure that all the press about it did prompt some players to stop monetizing (and if enough do, it becomes a self-fulfilling rumor).

Social game companies cannot afford to run games ad infinitum regardless of results but I suggest you make a broader equation when deciding whether to close a game. Rather than just looking at the game’s profitability, assess its effect on the brand, whether your customers will become less likely to monetize in your other games and if they will even be more reluctant to play one of your new games. Be creative with your older games, maybe focus them more on cross-promoting your better monetizing games, incorporate advertising or even license the game to a smaller company that would like a base to build off of. Just remember that sun-setting has consequences.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on January 30, 2012January 31, 2012Categories General Social Games Business, Social Games MarketingTags social game, social games, sun-setting sunsetting social games1 Comment on The Risks of Sun-setting Social Games

My Thoughts on the Spry Fox/6Waves Situation

I wanted to post today a few thoughts on the Spry Fox versus 6Waves/LOLApps litigation regarding the alleged copyright infringement of Triple Town (Dave Edery’s blog post explaining the situation). First, I want to say that I have no inside information on the situation, I have just read the various articles on industry sites and Dave’s blog. Thus, I have primarily seen Spry Fox’s position as there seems to be little comment from 6Waves/Lolapps. That said, I have known Dave Edery (the co-founder of Spry Fox) for almost ten years, from the days he was working on the XBLA team and he helped my company develop some concepts for XBLA titles. I have always found him one of the brightest and most honest people in the industry so I do believe his position on the situation.

Given the information I have read, I am disgusted at the alleged behavior by 6Waves/Lolapps, primarily their alleged viewing confidential material while creating a competitive/copycat game. If the case was simply 6Waves publishing a game, Yeti Town, that was largely similar to TripleTown I would not think it worthy of comment. The entertainment industry (television, film and even music) is largely built on companies taking a successful concept or story, making minor changes (hopefully improvements) and putting out a competitive product. You can even argue that every television show or movie is based on one of six plots created by Shakespeare and is thus a copycat clone. There are legal rules that define what is and is not copyright infringement and I have no idea if Yeti Town crossed the line here; I would not be posting if that was the only issue.

What I find unbelievable, though I totally believe it, is that a publisher can enter into negotiations with a developer while creating a competitive product. I don’t care if there was or was not an NDA, and the specific wording, but the alleged actions of 6Waves/LOLApps clearly crossed all ethical lines and probably legal ones.

It is the epitome of dishonesty but also an incredibly stupid business decision. Even if they can avoid legal repercussions, no developer will share a build of an upcoming game or market data with them ever again. I have been in the game industry almost twenty years (sympathy cards can be sent to my home address ), and I am always amused when developers would be worried about submitting a game project to an EA or THQ for fear it would be copied. I would always argue that it would be suicidal for a publisher to take such an approach (and I cannot think of one case previously where it actually happened), with or without an NDA, because the price of one game (and virtually no publisher outside Rockstar built a business around one game) would be its entire third party business.

If 6Waves/LOLApps is moving in the direction of only focusing on first party games and no longer cares what developers think of it, copying TripleTown still will not create any long-term value, just potentially some short-term cash (which now will be consumed by legal fees).

What is puzzling to me is that I have known many of the 6Waves management team for several years and always thought very highly of them (to the point that I would recommend them to developers who came to Playdom for a publishing partner after Playdom suspended its third party publishing program). I can only hypothesize that the acquisition of LOLApps changed the executive management culture or that they have currently hit some very difficult times and chose a very poor path to deal with it. It does seem to fit, however, with the attitude I have seen of some Valley companies, that they can do anything and are untouchable. I refer to it as Bonfire of the Vanities Pt. 2.

The purpose of this blog is largely to help the social game industry evolve into a real, lasting industry. I felt compelled to comment on this situation because it is actions like Six Waves/LOLApps that are slowing this evolution. At the end of the day, companies that rely on dishonesty and tricks to grow fail. There will always be disreputable players in any industry. At the end of the day they cannot stop our industry from maturing and strengthening, I just hope as many of you as possible take the right (and best) route to growth to not only benefit yourselves but speed the development of our sector.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on January 30, 2012January 30, 2012Categories General Social Games BusinessTags 6Waves/LOLApps, copyright infringement, publishing, spry fox, Triple Town, Yeti Town10 Comments on My Thoughts on the Spry Fox/6Waves Situation

Effect of Tablets on Social Gaming

A few recent personal experiences prompted me to realize that the effects of tablets on social gaming may be understated. You cannot go far without reading the projections/hype for the tablet computing market and most people consider it a given that it will be a very significant platform in the near future. I definitely would not disagree with these projections and also think that the emergence of tablets will have a much more profound effect on social gaming than just adding another platform.

A Real Threat to Facebook Gaming

I think tablets are the biggest threat to Facebook gaming. I took two trips recently, one for business, one for a family vacation and did not take my laptop on either. I wanted to see if my iPad and wireless keyboard could replace my laptop, at least for relatively short trips. I never regretted taking only the tablet, I used it seamlessly for meeting notes, email and playing games during down time. With Dropbox and Pages on the iPad, I could edit documents people sent to me and even review a contract.

For me, the biggest challenge was that I would not be able to play the three Facebook games that I play regularly, thus missing out on some daily bonuses and in one case causing distress to my fish (yes, I still play Fishville). But the tradeoff of not playing these games versus getting through security so much easier (boy, was it a pleasure) and cutting the weight of my carry-on in half made the tablet the clear winner and in the future I will probably travel sans laptop.

This anecdote would not be a big deal if I came back and just picked up the Facebook games where I left off. I found, however, that by not playing for a few days my engagement with the games fell and I am less compelled to play them regularly (in fact, I have not gone back to one of the games). I am, however, playing more iPad games than I had before. Given the importance of retention and engagement to the LTV of a Facebook game, as more people have experiences similar to mine, I think it could have a significantly negative impact on the long-term profitability of Facebook gaming (maybe the world changes if these games move to HTML5 soon and are playable on tablets, but I am not holding my breath).

An Even Greater Threat to iPhone Games

The other thing I have noticed is that I rarely play games on my smartphones anymore as I always have my iPad with me and the gaming experience is so much better. Maybe I am somewhat atypical as I am older than the core smartphone gaming demographic and may not have the same quality eye sight, but I do not know anyone who would prefer a phone’s screen to a tablet’s. I have not seen data yet on whether tablet gaming is replacing iPhone gaming but I feel it has to at some point. As there are more tablet options at different price points, they will become ubiquitous soon. At that point, people will begin reverting to using their phones as phones primarily.

Unlike my observation about tablet gaming displacing Facebook gaming, the evolution of playing “mobile” games on your phone versus tablet will not have as deep an impact on the social gaming industry. Most (though not all) new games are optimized for both iPhones and iPads, so it is just a shift of where the consumer plays . It may impact the market share of the various mobile operating systems, people may want to use a tablet and phone with different operating systems to increase the variety of apps available or may even go to less complex phones since the “smart” features are already on their tablets.

Nook Tablet

This paragraph is a little off topic, but since we are talking about tablets I just wanted to comment on the Nook Tablet. I recently picked up one to evaluate as I expect it to become the #3 tablet in the US this year (if it isn’t already). I have not had extensive time with it yet but I have so far been very impressed with the form factor and look-and-feel. Unlike the other 7-inch tablets I have tried (the Kindle Fire and 7” Samsung Galaxy Tab), the Nook Tablet is thinner and feels lighter. Before trying any of them, I expected them to be significantly smaller than the iPad and was disappointed (after all, it is a smaller screen). If the Nook Tablet performs at least as well as the Fire (which according to most reviews it does), I think it will have a major impact and thus be a big opportunity for social game companies.

Good For Us

Overall, though, for the social gaming industry the shift to tablets is great. With good portability, beautiful screens and an intuitive interface, tablets greatly enhance the game playing experience. As users will have them everywhere, it gives us the opportunity to become closer to our customers than ever before and will make it increasingly difficult for other forms of entertainment to get in between that bond.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on January 25, 2012January 25, 2012Categories General Social Games Business, Mobile PlatformsTags ipad, social games tablets iOS iPad 2 gaming barnes & noble nook, social gamingLeave a comment on Effect of Tablets on Social Gaming

Don’t Believe Zynga is Losing $150 on Every New Paying User

Last week, a lot of people mentioned to me, either gleefully or fearfully, the Sterne Agee’s analyst report that said Zynga was losing $150 on each new paying user. I did not have a chance to look at the numbers closely that led to this assumption but just doing basic calculations in my head and having prepared P&Ls for multiple Facebook titles, I knew it was garbage. The claim, however, did get a lot of traction because it was so outlandish and there are many Zynga haters out there who want to see it fail.

Fortunately, rather than having to do the math myself, there was a great piece in Business Insider that explained why the analyst report was wrong and Zynga was probably making $30 on every paying user. You can obviously follow the link to the article so I won’t go into detail on why the original claim was false. The gist of the analysis, though, was that the original analysis did not account for the natural attrition in social games (it assumed that everyone playing a Zynga game entering the period he measured remained a paying user). Anyone who has been in the industry over a week knows that all games lose players, some faster than others, and you need to replace these players by bringing in new customers.

Given Zynga’s market cap (and despite all the bad press, you are still looking at a company with a $6+ billion valuation), there are going to be a lot more analysts and pundits who have no idea what they are talking about trying to evaluate Zynga’s business and prospects. For those in the industry, the lesson is not to put much credence into what the “experts” are saying and focus on growing the fundamentals of your company.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on January 23, 2012January 23, 2012Categories General Social Games BusinessTags Zynga sterne agee profitabilityLeave a comment on Don’t Believe Zynga is Losing $150 on Every New Paying User

The Difficult Transition from Core Gaming to Social

I recently saw that several core game teams (by core, I mean traditional computer or video games) received funding to create or move into the social gaming space and I am somewhat incredulous that investors continue to throw money at such ventures. The track record of people or companies moving from the traditional gaming space to social is abysmal.

The fact is, not one developer that comprises primarily of core game veterans has had a success in the social space, despite many attempts. If you look at the top-50 games, all are from companies with roots either directly in social or in other web businesses. Even the game companies that have had the most success creating social games targeting core game players, Kabam and Kixeye, are devoid of designers or talent from the traditional video game space. Moreover, most of the core game refugees who have fled to social have failed to have a major impact. Again, if you look at the top games, only Gardens of Time (designed by an EA veteran) and Pioneer Trail (designed by Brian Reynolds) have clear core gaming roots. I would even argue that Pioneer Trail’s numbers were due more to Zynga’s market strength than any inherent game factors, so GoT was really the only case where a core game designer created something great in the social space.

It is not only developers who have had difficulty making the transition from core to social but also publishers. Although EA is now the number 2 social game company, they had to spend about $1 billion on Playfish and Popcap to gain that position as they were unable to do it with internal resources (or else they won’t have spent $1 billion ). Ubi Soft has been trying to gain traction in the space for over two years, released 21 games, and is still only ranked 98th among app developers (AppData based on DAU); despite having a hit (Smurfs Village). In fact, other than EA, there is no core game company (not Activision, not THQ, not Sony, not Atari, not Sega, etc) in the top-75.

There are many reasons for this difficult transition but I think the biggest is that they are just simply different businesses. It would be like a successful film producer moving to book publishing. They are both forms of entertainment but have very little else in common. The user experience and player’s goals are different. The game needs to be designed for gameplay stretching months, not a singular experience played in hours or days. The free to play business model requires a completely distinctive way of designing a game as monetization has to be built in from the beginning. Virality needs to be incorporated into a game, it is no longer word of mouth through forums.

Last but not least, there is a certain degree of condescension that people from the traditional game space bring with them when moving to social. If they admit it or not, they feel the games are inferior to core games (I do not know how often I have heard that social games are where “real” games were in the 1980s), have simple technology and are not fun but merely manipulative. I am not going to argue why they are wrong on all three points as I am not going to convince most of them otherwise, but it is these beliefs that are the reason core game companies and personnel fail again and again in the social space.

I wrote this post not to beat up on the traditional game community, they do a great job of creating products that really please core gamers, but wanted to point out why core game companies have had such a small influence in our space and will continue to flounder. I also wanted to reiterate my shock at the amount of investment that flows to these companies to move into the space despite the dismal track record.

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on January 10, 2012June 11, 2012Categories General Social Games Business, Lloyd's favorite posts, Mobile Platforms, Social Games MarketingTags social game core traditional games zynga investment14 Comments on The Difficult Transition from Core Gaming to Social

What I Expect in 2012

I recently wrote about how little I believe “expert” predictions of the future and how stupid I think it is for people to follow them. So, of course, I felt it was appropriate for me to now give my predictions for 2012  Actually, I still feel predictions are not worth the paper they are written on and if I (or anyone) could predict the future we would go public this week and be worth billions. But by looking just at 2012, I think you can extrapolate some current trends to anticipate how the upcoming year will shake out.

You will see more cross-platform

Regardless of the institutional hurdles to creating social games that work across platforms (Facebook and iOS for example) the huge value it provides to players will drive a solution. By the end of next year, more and more games will be enjoyable wherever they player might be playing.

A new social gaming genre will emerge

This is an argument that Facebook has been making since at least this summer and I totally agree. There are a lot of great gameplay mechanics that are not yet available on social. Just like Playdom created a huge new space in social with Gardens of Time, someone will create a hit by finding a way to bring a proven mechanic to social.

Investment and M&A activity will decrease

I mentioned in several blog posts that post-Zynga IPO, investors and potential acquirers will look differently at social gaming company. Valuations will be based less on a company’s potential and more on how its numbers compare with Zynga (i.e. comparable price-revenue ratios). As a lot of companies do not have the numbers to justify a deal, the type of dumb money deals we have seen the past few years will dry up.

There will be industry consolidation

With less money out there, companies that do not have a strong business model won’t survive. They won’t be able to finance themselves through cash flow and won’t be able to raise new capital. Overall, this will be great for the industry, as the remaining companies will be the ones with strong management, a good business concept and ability to execute.

International will become a key revenue driver

This started as a blog about international opportunities for social game companies and in the past year I have seen that many firms in the space are starting to realize the same thing. While the US social market, both mobile and Facebook, is increasingly saturated, many European and Latin American markets are still wide open. The competition is lower and in some cases the revenue potential per user is higher. With the cost of user acquisition ever increasing in the US, social game companies will also have no choice but to look elsewhere for new players. Also, as companies scramble to maintain their growth, in 2012 they will find Europe and other foreign markets the low hanging fruit.

But Greece and others will default and everyone will feel it

Since this is about predictions, I would bet Mitt Romney $10,000 that Greece defaults; and its affects will be felt by social gaming companies. First, it will further drive down the value of the Euro, depressing current state EU revenue. It will also have a strong effect on the buying power of the countries that default, though most of these (and I predict defaults by Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Ireland all in 2012) do not generate significant revenue for most social game companies.

Windows Mobile will become a viable social platform

Regardless of what happens in the US with Windows Mobile, it will be a winner in Europe. With Nokia’s launch of its line of Windows Mobile phones, the platform will become a viable contender given Nokia’s reach and reputation in Europe. Given the issues with monetizing Android, I actually expect revenue opportunities on Windows Mobile to exceed Android (on the mobile, not tablet, space) next year. Also, if you haven’t played around with a Windows phone, it is actually a great opportunity system. Given MS and Nokia’s muscle, I just can’t see it fail (and Microsoft did not pay me to say that). I think revenue wise Windows Mobile will be more important to social companies than Android.

Kindle Fire will become a key mobile platform

This is not really much of a prediction given the initial sales numbers (over 3 million sold in a few weeks), but Fire is getting a large installed base of people willing to pay for content. And Amazon is as good, or better, than Apple at creating a customer experience that moves people to monetization.

Traditional marketing will become more important

Another topic I have discussed on this blog and at trade shows is how performance marketing will no longer be the only, or preferred, way to acquire users. With the cost of performance marketing increasing and sophisticated entertainment companies entering the social game space, more publishers will see the benefits of a traditional marketing mix to grow games.

Undifferentiated companies will fade away

As I mentioned earlier, it will be increasingly difficult to raise money in 2012. Thus, the companies who are just doing what other social game companies are doing, but not as well, will not survive. They will have no way of acquiring users and even if they get people to their games, they will not be able to retain (or monetize) the players.

Two new companies will break the top-10

One of the things I most strongly believe is that the top-5 and top-10 on Facebook is still very dynamic and that innovative, well-run companies can still make the top-10. Who last year would of predicted that Wooga and King.com would be in the top-5 (okay, probably Jens from Wooga but who else)? While the copycat companies will have trouble getting any traction, a few companies that approach the space from a different angle will see considerable success.

And one non-social gaming prediction that I feel I need to include

A Republican will win the White House

This is a nod to my belief in analytics over gut, not any personal inclinations. If you look at the current US economic metrics and compare that with virtually any previous election, it bodes very, very poorly for the incumbent. While a lot of pundits argue that this year will be different because of the Republican field or the antipathy to Congress, I always feel it is very, very hard to disagree with the numbers. We’ll see.

Happy holidays to everyone!

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Unknown's avatarAuthor Lloyd MelnickPosted on December 21, 2011December 21, 2011Categories General Social Games Business, International Issues with Social Games, Mobile Platforms, Social Games Marketing, UncategorizedTags Social game industry predictions 2012 international kindle fire windows mobile android ios4 Comments on What I Expect in 2012

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